Michael Ghofrani: Sabres Draft Primer Part 3: Gaining An Edge In Rounds 2-7

First. Good solid points Mike. There are general rules which tend to help. The more specific clarity which can be arrived at is the best approach. It does seem to be a crap shoot, but one that some clubs has seemed to resolve better than others.

Oliver arrested for DWI and carrying a gun. 😑

Question for the group: I'm doing rankings of defensemen and I'm including hits as a ranked category. I have it broken down by hits administered, hits taken, and differential (hits given vs. hits taken). My idea was the more hits you give versus the less you take, the better, but now I'm thinking that isn't necessarily true.

So do I factor hits at all in any way?

Sometimes the hitter has more of a negative outcome then the hittee, so to speak.

Welp. Maybe keeping Phillips would’ve been a good idea

Welp. Maybe keeping Phillips would’ve been a good idea
- sbroads24

2 game suspension, maybe 4, and move on?

That assumes the suspension will be served this season and not next?

why?



hopefully it's the only glitch in the bills offseason

Good question.
IMO hits is more a stylistic metric that could be used to help define the type of Dman a player is. PIM could also help in that regard.

I personally don't think either of those help to quantify the quality of a defender.

Infact, some would argue that for a Dman if you are hitting alot and/or taking penalties you are more than likely chasing the puck in your own end. I don't have data yo prove that theory though, but it does make some level of sense.

Good question.
IMO hits is more a stylistic metric that could be used to help define the type of Dman a player is. PIM could also help in that regard.

I personally don't think either of those help to quantify the quality of a defender.

Infact, some would argue that for a Dman if you are hitting alot and/or taking penalties you are more than likely chasing the puck in your own end. I don't have data yo prove that theory though, but it does make some level of sense.
- IonSabres

To add to those questions, my baseline question on hitting: it's always said that if your team is outhitting the other team, meaning they're the aggressor, it's a positive, but is it a safe assumption that if you're giving the hit, it's less impactful for you compared to if you're taking the hit? How do we know if giving a hit is any less hurtful to the body than taking a hit?

Welp. Maybe keeping Phillips would’ve been a good idea
- sbroads24

at least he was wearing a bills shirt

why did we let this guy slip away and not sign him?


https://www.nbcsports.com...ent-forward-brandon-hagel

To add to those questions, my baseline question on hitting: it's always said that if your team is outhitting the other team, meaning they're the aggressor, it's a positive, but is it a safe assumption that if you're giving the hit, it's less impactful for you compared to if you're taking the hit? How do we know if giving a hit is any less hurtful to the body than taking a hit?
- kingcong39

So, thinking outloud here, take it for what it is worth.
Impact on the body as to giving or receiving a hit I would think would take a fair amount of research with health considerations involved...that isn't me, lol.

Back to what hitting may reveal, generally I would say it may be more advantageous in the offensive zone in that it shows an element of forcing/dictating the play with higher intensity. I'm not saying there is a strong correlation there, but my mind says I'd rather see my offense being physically aggressive in the offensive zone than my Dmen being so in their defensive zone for the reasons in my previous post...chasing the puck vs controlling it.

I guess the difference I see is where the hit occurs in trying to causing a turnover to benefit a scoring opportunity.

Maybe takeaways for /given is the better metric than hits?

why did we let this guy slip away and not sign him?

https://www.nbcsports.com...ent-forward-brandon-hagel
- homiedclown

Has he become some kind of quality NHL player?

I thought he showed a little promise at the AHL level last year, but that was it so far?

So, thinking outloud here, take it for what it is worth.
Impact on the body as to giving or receiving a hit I would think would take a fair amount of research with health considerations involved...that isn't me, lol.

Back to what hitting may reveal, generally I would say it may be more advantageous in the offensive zone in that it shows an element of forcing/dictating the play with higher intensity. I'm not saying there is a strong correlation there, but my mind says I'd rather see my offense being physically aggressive in the offensive zone than my Dmen being so in their defensive zone for the reasons in my previous post...chasing the puck vs controlling it.

I guess the difference I see is where the hit occurs in trying to causing a turnover to benefit a scoring opportunity.

Maybe takeaways for /given is the better metric than hits?
- IonSabres

I reviewed that first and found, most commonly, defenseman that were willing to skate the puck out and make plays were almost always turning it over more than stealing it away.

Giveaways/takeaways are another gray area overall.

at least he was wearing a bills shirt



- homiedclown

I'm sure Terri and Kym are thankful for the free advertising!

I reviewed that first and found, most commonly, defenseman that were willing to skate the puck out and make plays were almost always turning it over more than stealing it away.

Giveaways/takeaways are another gray area overall.
- kingcong39

Makes sense, more opportunity to "fail" if you will.
Does that make it bad though? Maybe as a raw number yes, but could we find a relational number to use as a denominator to achieve a relative stat...i.e. percentage of zone exits resulting in failure or success?

I think back to the Scandy-Joker pairing where Scandella enjoyed a better season partly because he was paired with an effective puck mover who could exit the zone properly. So, Joker had far more opportunities to fail by virtue of being the guy challenged to exit the zone...but % wise he looks better.

I'm not sure what data points you have available to you that could help in that regard.
Not sure I'm helping, but do enjoy the conversation.

Makes sense, more opportunity to "fail" if you will.
Does that make it bad though? Maybe as a raw number yes, but could we find a relational number to use as a denominator to achieve a relative stat...i.e. percentage of zone exits resulting in failure or success?

I think back to the Scandy-Joker pairing where Scandella enjoyed a better season partly because he was paired with an effective puck mover who could exit the zone properly. So, Joker had far more opportunities to fail by virtue of being the guy challenged to exit the zone...but % wise he looks better.

I'm not sure what data points you have available to you that could help in that regard.
Not sure I'm helping, but do enjoy the conversation.
- IonSabres

I believe I do have access to zone exit % success and failure data.

I believe I do have access to zone exit % success and failure data.
- kingcong39

It will be interesting to see your results...you might be internationally known for developing the Kong metric.

Got this in my inbox this morning. Had to share the wealth. You're welcome.

Got this in my inbox this morning. Had to share the wealth. You're welcome.


- BeadyEyedDouche

have a good time on your date

Got this in my inbox this morning. Had to share the wealth. You're welcome.


- BeadyEyedDouche

Shouldn't have put your number in the bathroom stall at Walmart.

I believe I do have access to zone exit % success and failure data.
- kingcong39

Hey do you have access to that Data when Scandella played for the Wild.

Hey do you have access to that Data when Scandella played for the Wild.
- Buff36

I'll check. Anything specific you're looking for?

I'll check. Anything specific you're looking for?
- kingcong39

Was it playing with Joker, or did he just have a bad season because of the injury the year before. Should the Sabres have kept him and moved someone else.
Zone exits% and failure.

at least he was wearing a bills shirt



- homiedclown

It aint armed robbery ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52692098